What We Think | Research on Markets from Regional Food Group for Yorkshire and Humber

What We Think

As 2009 drew to a close, sufficient data had emerged to measure of how the food and drink sector was performing in the prevailing economic conditions: affected by the recession but holding up, receiverships and closures were low but there had been some significant job losses in larger businesses.

Most pundits predict a slow climb out of recession or at least a stabilisation of economic conditions: but what will 2010 hold? The RFG Membership Survey carried out in October 2009 indicated that regional food and drink businesses concur and are optimistic and expect the business climate to improve in 2010.

There are global, national, and regional issues that may all impact on food and drink businesses. There are Big Issues and Mega Trends and the Regional Food Group has analysed these to form a PEST analysis with predictions for 2010 and beyond.

Big Issues

There are three big issues facing the sector:

Food Security and Sustainability
Food security and sustainability issues mean that the most noticeable effect for small businesses is the fluctuating price and availability of raw materials.

Environmental Management
Environmental management is very important: much of the current legislation is aimed at large businesses but it is inevitable that this will migrate towards smaller businesses.

Health & Demographics
Health and demographics is becoming a popular theme relating to food and food production. This is a significant area of concerns as they tackle a population that has many food related health concerns such as obesity and diabetes.

Global Mega Trends

As well as the three main issues facing the sector, there are four well established global mega trends:

Indulgence
Indulgence is an exciting trend for regional food producers where premium and luxury products can really excel.

Convenience
Convenience is about the speed of delivery and fitting in with consumer schedules.

Health & Wellbeing
Health and wellbeing is a vast trend encompassing many consumer needs depending on the personal health cohort.

Sustainability
Food sustainability has taken a new significance with the launch of the DEFRA Food 2030 Vision: a strategy for food production and supply for the next 20 years.

Regional Food Group PEST Analysis

As part of a review to extend the life of the current strategy for the Regional Food Group, a PEST analysis was undertaken. This looks at the political, economical, social, and technological factors – both factual and hypothetical – that will affect food sector in the near future to 2012 and then beyond.

In Conclusion

So, having reviewed the big issues, the global mega trends, and the prevailing political, economical, social, technological, ethical and environmental situations, what are the Regional Food Group predictions for 2010 and beyond?

General Economic and Environmental Drivers

• Ambient stable products
• Alternative protein sources
• Vegetable based diets
• Not just local but seasonal

General Social Drivers

• Emergence of a modern temperance movement
• Obesity becoming as socially unacceptable as smoking

Industry Drivers

• Processing and packaging technologies for shelf life and quality
• Ingredient development to meet consumer needs and demands
• Knowledgeable and flexible workforce

Industry Economic and Environmental Drivers

• Investment in R&D and PD
• Overhauls in energy use
• Towards zero waste
• Infrastructure, particularly transport and distribution

The full version of this report, including a more thorough explanation of our PEST Analysis, is available as a PDF file: RFG 2010 Predictions.pdf (96kb)